Growth plan for Barefaced, 2 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Barefaced has 352 reviews at 4.9/5 and a 20% first-order offer. The plan turns that proof into many tested ads, holds CAC at £11.04 and scales spend only while the number holds across the Mineral Foundation, lipsticks and eye kits.
- Target CAC
- £11.04
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- £24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
Hold CAC at £11.04 while the Mineral Foundation scales
The number is £11.04 CAC. It is a guard line: 0.6 of an £18.40 ceiling built from a £23 average order, a 40% margin and one repeat order. Those inputs are my guesses until your data replaces them in week one.
Protect
Target CAC: £11.04 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): £23 × 40% × (1 + 1) = £18.40. Guard line = 0.6 × £18.40 = £11.04. Across the ranges: £2.63 to £64.80.
Three moves
- Test many hooks on the Mineral Foundation first, one variable per test, and kill losers early.
- Lead with the 4.9/5 rating from 352 reviews and the 20% first-order offer, then test around them.
- Report daily CAC against £11.04 and pause any ad set that drifts above it.
- reviews on the page, rated 4.9/5
- 352
- Published
- off the first order
- 20%
- Published
- variants of the BareSatin lipstick
- 66
- Published
02 Variety
60 foundation variants and 66 lipstick variants feed the tests
Each ad concept has to carry one reason to buy, one product and one hook. The Mineral Foundation, the £14.00 lip gloss, the BareSatin lipstick and the eye kits give different reasons, so one variable changes per test and the rest stays fixed.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Natural formula | 99-100% Natural Formula — Made with skin-loving ingredients, free from harsh chemicals and nasties | 9 |
| Vegan and cruelty-free | Vegan & Cruelty-Free: Every BareFaced Beauty product is 100% vegan and never tested on animals. | 2 |
| Rated 4.9/5 | Rated 4.9/5 | 2 |
| 20% off first order | Ready for Flawless Skin? Get 20% Off Your First Order! | 2 |
| Kind to sensitive skin | Kind to Sensitive Skin — Gentle enough for even the most sensitive lips | 1 |
| Free UK delivery | Free UK delivery on orders over £30. Fast despatch. | 1 |
| Money-back promise | Love your look or your money back. | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
A 20% first-order offer can flatter CAC and hide weak repeat
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The 20% first-order offer lifts first orders but may attract one-time buyers | Med | High | Both | Cohort payback reviewed monthly; pause offer-led ads if CAC stays above £11.04 after week four. |
| Free UK delivery starts over £30, and one £18.00 foundation order sits below it | High | Med | Me | Track average order value; if it sits under the £23 guess, rebuild the ceiling in week one. |
| Creators drift past the brand's own wording, such as 97-100% Natural Formula | Med | High | Your team | Every creator script is checked against the claims sheet before posting; no unchecked video goes live. |
| Purchase events miss orders, so daily CAC is wrong | High | High | Your team | Store order counts match the ad platform before spend passes the week one £3,000 test. |
| Creators sign slowly, so videos fall behind the ramp | Med | High | Me | Creators live match the proposed ramp each week; if two weeks slip, cut ad spend to match. |
| 60 foundation variants make one ad promise a shade the shopper cannot match | Med | Med | Both | Each foundation ad names one shade range; kill any ad with CAC above £18.40 after its test spend. |
| Eye kits list £45.00 against a £38.00 compare price, so ad and page can disagree | Med | Low | Your team | Price on each ad matches the product page before launch; any mismatch pulls the ad the same day. |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
£18.40 is the ceiling, £11.04 is the guard line
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | £23 (range £5.00–£48.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | £18.40 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | £11.04 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): £23 × 40% × (1 + 1) = £18.40. Guard line = 0.6 × £18.40 = £11.04. Across the ranges: £2.63 to £64.80.
Range across the assumptions: £3 to £65.
Prices on the site are facts. Order value, margin and repeat orders are guesses behind the £18.40 ceiling and £11.04 guard line; week one replaces them with your data.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
£24,000 of tests across six weeks, one variable per test
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × £250 | £3,000 | £3,000 | 0 | £11 |
| 2 | 12 × £250 | £3,000 | £6,000 | 2 | £11 |
| 3 | 12–20 × £250 | £4,000 | £10,000 | 4 | £11 |
| 4 | 12–20 × £250 | £4,000 | £14,000 | 6 | £11 |
| 5 | 20 × £250 | £5,000 | £19,000 | 8 | £11 |
| 6 | 20 × £250 | £5,000 | £24,000 | 10 | £11 |
Six weeks of tests, £24,000 in total. Week 1 runs 12 ads at £250 each, £3,000. Weeks 3 and 4 move to 12–20 ads, £4,000 each. Weeks 5 and 6 run 20 ads, £5,000 each. Spend rises only as creators and landing pages go live.
The math. Week 1: 12 × £250 = £3,000; Week 2: 12 × £250 = £3,000; Week 3: 16 × £250 = £4,000; Week 4: 16 × £250 = £4,000; Week 5: 20 × £250 = £5,000; Week 6: 20 × £250 = £5,000. Total £24,000 (96 ads × £250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
Creative volume is how £14.00 lipsticks find winners
More concepts means more winners. At 20 concepts I guess 2 winners and £18,000 added; at 80 concepts, 8 winners and £72,000. Hit rate and spend per winner are an Assumption, not Barefaced data.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | £300 / day | £18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | £300 / day | £36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | £300 / day | £54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | £300 / day | £72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × £300 × 30 days = £18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × £300 × 30 days = £36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × £300 × 30 days = £54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × £300 × 30 days = £72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
£100,000 split so the Mineral Foundation is tested first
- Mineral Foundation and Try Me First Kit tests
- £45,000
- 45%
- Lipstick and lip gloss set tests
- £25,000
- 25%
- Scaling winners already under £11.04
- £20,000
- 20%
- Eye kits and brush add-ons for order value
- £10,000
- 10%
Percentages split the £100,000 budget; the foundation gets the largest share because it carries a 4.89 rating from 144 verified reviews.
The math. 45% × £100,000 = £45,000; 25% × £100,000 = £25,000; 20% × £100,000 = £20,000; 10% × £100,000 = £10,000. Sum 100% = £100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first, because the 4.9/5 reviews need a feed to travel in
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week 1, with 12 ads at £250 each | Creator videos turn the £18.00 Mineral Foundation into feed-native tests. |
| TikTok | Once Meta shows a winning hook below £11.04 CAC | Creator-led lipstick and lip gloss videos fit the format; same hooks, new feed. |
| Google Search | When branded search grows from the creator videos | Shoppers searching Barefaced or mineral foundation need a page waiting. |
| After the first-order signup is tracked | The 20% first-order offer feeds repeat orders, which the £18.40 ceiling counts on. | |
| After the first winners, if eye kits show steady demand | Eye kits at £45.00 suit saved-look boards, a slower channel to test. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback decides: a £20 CAC never recovers on a £23 order
Payback is the real constraint. At a £5 CAC the first order pays back with £13.40 left. At £10 it needs repeat orders, leaving £8.40. At £20 or £25 it never pays back, £1.60 or £6.60 short, so I stop there.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: £9.20, £18.40.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| £5 | £9.20 | £18.40 | £13.40 | First order |
| £10 | £9.20 | £18.40 | £8.40 | After repeat orders |
| £20 | £9.20 | £18.40 | −£1.60 | Never: stop |
| £25 | £9.20 | £18.40 | −£6.60 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC £5: £18.40 − £5 = £13.40 left; pays back: First order; CAC £10: £18.40 − £10 = £8.40 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC £20: £18.40 − £20 = −£1.60 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC £25: £18.40 − £25 = −£6.60 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
What I cover, and what stays with your team at Barefaced
Covers
- Meta ad concepts, hooks and weekly experiments on the Mineral Foundation and lip sets
- Creator briefs, outreach and the weekly video flow for the roster
- Landing page briefs that lead with the 4.9/5 rating and first-order offer
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings and monthly cohort payback reporting
Doesn’t
- Event tracking build: I spec it, your team builds it
- Product, shade range and pricing decisions
- Claims beyond the brand's own certified wording
- Fulfilment, delivery and customer service
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Tracking matches store orders and the first tests read CAC against £11.04 | Store and ad platform orders still disagree |
| Day 30 | Creators live match the ramp and one winning hook holds CAC at or below £11.04 | No hook lands below £18.40 after the ramp |
| Day 60 | Cohort payback shows the repeat orders the £18.40 ceiling counts on | Repeat orders stay missing and CAC sits above £11.04 |
| Day 90 | Spend has scaled across winners with CAC still at or below £11.04 | CAC rises above £18.40 as spend scales |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| creative | 4.9/5 rating from 352 reviews and a 20% first-order offer | A hook library and tested ads built on that proof | 1st |
| creators | Lipstick, lip gloss and eye kit ranges with many variants | A creator roster, briefs and a pay plan | Week 1 |
| claims sheet | PETA and Vegan Society certification wording | One sheet of approved claims for creators | Week 1 |
| landing pages | Mineral Foundation page at £18.00, 60 variants | Pages built per hook, matched to each ad | 2nd |
| reporting | A 20% first-order offer that must be tracked | Daily CAC view against £11.04 | 2nd |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 352 reviews on the page, rated 4.9/5 | https://www.barefacedbeauty.co.uk/ | Fact |
| 20% off the first order | https://www.barefacedbeauty.co.uk/pages/our-values | Fact |
| 66 variants of the BareSatin lipstick | https://www.barefacedbeauty.co.uk/products/baresatin-natural-vegan-lipstick | Fact |
| Product prices £5.00–£48.00 | product prices in the site product data (40 products), read 2026-10-02 | Fact |
| £23 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| £11.04 target CAC | 0.6 of the £18.40 margin per customer | Calculated |
| £18.40 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| £24,000 of tests (96 ads × £250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| £100,000 first budget split 45% / 25% / 20% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · £300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| £5.74 per 1,000 views against a £1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| £1,000 base pay · £50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands £300–£600, £500–£1,000, £800–£1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I read your store data to replace my guesses, write the claims sheet from your certified wording, brief the first creators and launch 12 ads on the Mineral Foundation and Try Me First Kit. Tracking is spec'd with your team.
